07. Identifying and Mitigating Overfitting and Underfitting
AI For Trading C6 L2 A05 Identifying And Mitigating V3
Understanding Learning Curves and Model Performance
Learning curves help assess how a model's performance evolves with more training data, highlighting issues of overfitting and underfitting.
Key Concepts:
Overfitting
- Occurs when a model performs well on training data but poorly on validation data.
- Often due to complex models memorizing noise rather than learning general patterns.
Underfitting
- Happens when a model fails to capture underlying patterns, leading to poor performance on both training and validation sets.
- Indicates that the model may be too simple or lacks informative features.
Diagnosing with Learning Curves:
- Track performance scores on training and validation datasets as the model is exposed to more data.
- A sign of an ideal model is when both scores converge at relatively high values.
Implications in Application:
Overfitting
- In domains like finance, can lead to misleadingly high results on training data, risking financial losses if deployed.
- Mitigation involves cautious feature selection and considering data dimensionality.
Strategies
- Use learning curves to decide if additional data is beneficial.
- Ensure models balance complexity with generalization capabilities to avoid both over and underfitting.
SOLUTION:
- Analyzing the learning curves.
- Cross-validation techniques to assess model performance on different subsets of data
SOLUTION:
- Overfitting typically occurs when a model is too complex and captures noise in the training data.
- Underfitting can happen when a model is overly simple and fails to capture the underlying data patterns.